Ahmadi Nezhad's "Programmed Death"

Mr. Qolamali Haddad Adel’s recent declarations that Mr. Esfandiar Rahim Masha’i, --believed to be President Mahmoud Ahmadi Nezhad’s favorite candidate to the upcoming presidential race --, would be rejected by the Council of Guardians of the Constitution if he presents himself as a candidate is interpreted by most Iranian political observers as “the last step to the programmed death of Mr. Ahmadi Nezhad.

“I’m confident that Mr. Rahim Masha’i as well as Mr. (Mohammad) Khatami , if they register as candidates, would be rejected by the Council of the Guardians (of the Constitution”, he told the Revolutionary Guard’s controlled Fars news agency on 2 May 2013.

Being the father of the wife of Ali Khameneh’i’s second son Mojtaba and one of the candidates blessed by the embattled leader, Mr. Haddad Adel’s statement is considered as reflecting Mr. Khameneh’i’s decision to dump once for all not only the “rebel” President, but also all other “troublesome” candidates to the elections, scheduled for 14 June.

In fact, the announcement came after WND (World Net Daily, an American “independent” internet news media established in 1997, reported few days ago that Mr. Ahmadi Nezhad had been arrested and held for seven hours and warned to keep his mouth shut about matters detrimental to the Islamic regime, especially not think of presenting Mr. Rahim Masha’i as candidate.

Quoting “a source within the Revolutionary Guard’s intelligence unit”, WND said the President was arrested after visiting Tehran’s Book Exposition and taken to an undisclosed “secure house” belonging to Hossein Taeb, the head of the Guards’ intelligence.

Though the “exclusive” item is not confirmed by any source in Iran or abroad, and denied by the official news agency IRNA, which presents WND as a “biased, anti-Iranian media” but it is considered enough serious to be printed by the respected British daily Guardian.

“Ahmadi Nezhad was questioned for hours in a meeting with Taeb; Asghar Hejazi, the head of intelligence at the supreme leader’s office; Mojtaba Khameneh’i and Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, the attorney general. He was warned to back down from his claims against regime officials and given an ultimatum. The source added that Ahmadi Nezhad was released back to his security team at 11:45 p.m. Monday, Tehran time”, WND said.

One day after, the radical daily “Keyhan”, edited by Hosseyn Shari’atmadari, an intelligence officer specializing in interrogation of political prisonneers appointed by Khamenehe’i as Chief Editor of the paper, in a front page article, tagged the former reformist president Khatami as “corruptor on earth”, an accusation that carries death penalty.

And on Tuesday 3 May, the daily “Resalat”, which reflects the views of the bazaaris (merchants) warned former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani not present himself to elections or “all documents about his and his family’s financial corruptions would be published”.

“Considering the brief detention of Ahmadi Nezhad in a secret place where he could have been killed, considering the fact that in his last tour of provinces, in any city he visited, he could not attract more than 1000 people, many of them government employees or sandwich seekers, considering Haddad Adel’s declarations to Fars, considering the warnings of Keyhan, that represents the leader’s views, and Resalat, to Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani, one can conclude that both the powerful Sepah and Khameneh’I have decided to clean the field from unwanted candidates, that they are no more looking for happy, popular voting, but only to a calm trouble free elections, bringing out of the sleeve their own rabbit”, Dr. Bizhan Eftekhari, an economist and political commentator told Radio Ettehad (Union).

Confirming this analysis, Dr. Mostafa Danesh, a former international journalist who had covered during more than 40 years Pakistan, Afghanistan, the Middle East and Arab world for leading German medias like Sud Deutche Zeitung or the much respected Der Spiegle magazine says the problem of Khameneh’i is that he has no candidate capable of attracting many voters.

“Velayati, Haddad Adel, Qalibaf, believed to be backed by Khameneh’i are not popular figures. They would only be elected if engineered by the revolutionary guards”, he told a news program of the Los Angeles-based, popular, independent Andished Television.

Looking farther, Dr. Majid Mohammad, an expert and researcher of the lives and works senior Iranian officials, whether religious, civilians or militaries said it seems that the possible candidate would be one of the 3 members of the 2+1 Coalition between Dr. Ali Akbar Velayati, the leader’s senior advisor for international affairs, Mr. Haddad Adel, a former Speaker and Mohammd Baqer Qalibaf, the present Mayor of Tehran.

“One of the main conditions for any candidate to be wet by the Council of Guardians being total allegiance to the leader, this condition Rahim Masha’i has lost. On the other hand, Khameneh’i hates both Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani. Remain one of the three men said to be favored by the leader: Haddad Adel, though a family of Khameneh’i, is very mediocre, unsmiling, has no administration experience. Dr Velayati is better. He had been a former foreign minister, as such, he has some knowledge of the world. Yet, I would say that in case Mr. Hassan Rohani, the Chief nuclear negotiator under Khatami decides not to run, at the end of the day, both Khameneh’i’s and Sepah’s choice would be Qalibaf, himself a pasdaran’s officer. But if Rohani enters the race, he would won the elections”, Mr Mohammadi told the same Andished TV.  

But according to Dr. Kourosh Erfani, a former professor of Sociology at Paris universities who now is based in Los Angeles, there is one outsider that if he decides to run or he is ordered to do so, he might “very certainly” be the next Iranian President.

           “This man, he says, is Said Jalili, the present Secretary of Supreme Council of National Security and senior Iranian nuclear negotiator facing Mrs. Katherine Ashton, the European Union’s Foreign Affairs Minister leading the group of 5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN’s Security Council plus Germany)”

“Jalili is close to the leader and as a senior revolutionary guards officer, he has the backing of the all powerful Sepah. With him as next president, the guards, which now controls everything and everyone in Iran, including the leader himself, can send a welcome message to both America and the 5+1, saying look, we can solve the nuclear crisis friendly, we can restore and keep peace and security both at home and in the strategic Persian Gulf, we are not after war with Israel, provided Israel recognizes our interests in the area. In order to increase our oil and gas outputs as much as possible, you can invest in developing our oil and other industrial projects without any fear and in exchange, end sanctions”, Mr. Erfani told the Ettehad Radio.

 

In his view, such a message has already sent to Washington and it is because of these promises that Mr. John Kerry, the new American State Secretary has urged senators to wait until the outcome of Iranian presidential elections is known to decide increasing the sanctions or suspend them.

“If Iran keeps its words, one can be sure that sanctions would end gradually, western powers, including America, would invest heavily in Iranian oil and other industries. This in turn would create more job opportunities and people would respire. If not, one can be sure that Iran will be attacked by the United States, Israel and some other nations like Britain, France and even Germany, a massive bombing would not only destroy all our industrial, military and nuclear installations, but divide present Iran into five, six mini states easily manageable from Washington, London, Tel Aviv and Riyadh”, concluded Dr. Kourosh Erfani.

Safa Haeri