Will the Sepah, or the Pasdarans, the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution that, by controlling more than eighty per cent of the nation's economy, also dictates the policies of the regime, be able to solve the crisis of Iranian controversed nuclear program by starting direct talks with the international community, particularly the United States of America?
Contrary to many foreign political observers and diplomats who still think that it is Mr. Ali Khameneh'i who, as the "supreme leader" has the last word on every major issue, Iranian analysts are of the opinion that it is the Sepah that rules the theocratic regime.
In fact, Sepah's missions, responsibilities, activities and operations are as impressive as varied and diversified, ranging from nuclear programs -- a project that the West insist it is aimed at developing atomic weapons, and Iran assures that it has a purely civilian and peaceful use -- to keeping security at home by crushing mercilessly all anti-regime, anti-Khameneh'i demonstrations, construction of new weapons like short and long range missiles, intelligence and counter-intelligence, engaging in cyber war against mostly Israel and America, cultural and media activities etc...
The Sepah's personnel is estimated at between 250.000 to 350.000 men. The Basij, or the militia it incorporates is reported to have more than 200.000 people. The Qods (Jerusalem) Army, specialising in various operations outside the country, has 40.000 troops and cadres. Its missions consist of, among other things, supporting the crumbling regime of Bashar Assad in Syria, helping the Taleban and Al Qa'eda in Afghanistan and Pakistan fighting the American and NATO forces, keeping Mr. Al Maleki, a former officer of the Sepah, as Prime Minister in one hand, pitting the Shi'a Muslims against the Sunnis and the Kurds on the other, providing military, financial and psychological support to the Iran-created, Shi'a-based Hezbollah Organisation in Lebanon, assassination of major Iranian dissidents etc....
As the country's biggest military-industrial corporation that receives from the government all major, lucrative contracts, like construction of roads and railways, lay oil and gas pipe lines, housing complexes etc... Sepah is the biggest employer....., and also the most corrupt power.
However, to inject new blood into its enfeebled body, the Sepah needs to refill its empty safe boxes, something which is not possible unless the next Government can get more money from oil, the only major Iranian source of revenues.
But from more than 6 million barrels per day (bpd) before the Islamic revolution of 1979, Iranian production has dropped to a little more than 2 million bpd and export stands at less than one million bpd.
According to Iranian and foreign oil experts, in order to develop its oil wells, Iran needs investments estimated at between 600 to 800 billion dollars, a colossal sum that could come only from major Western oil companies.
Attracting such a huge money needs, first, that the nuclear conflict is resolved to the satisfaction of the 5+1 group, second, that economic sanctions are removed and third, political and economic stability is assured, regardless of the democratic or despotic nature of the regime
The answerr to this vital question is Sepah, the only force that can keep both political and economic stability and therefore assure foreign investors that their ventures would not be affected.
Therefore, as the major victim of international sanctions, Sepah is seriously interested in removal them, and because of its economic, military and political powers, it can impose its wills on Khameneh'i, knowing well that if its revenues are diminishing day after day, it is because of the leader's staunch, obsessive opposition to any solution of the atomic problemThe reason for this appalling situation is because American sanctions, the Islamic Republic, unable to have access to modern, costly thecnologies necessary for drilling and extracting oil, continue to use old techniques harmful to oil fields with modern technologies, Iran needs investments, by major oil companies, most of them Americans, estimated at between 600 to 800 billions dollars in a ten years period.democratic or despotic nature of the regime.
But while even the total stop of the present quantity of Iranian oil would not worry oil markets thanks to the increase in Iraqi, Libyan and Saudi combined productions, the presence of hundreds of billions of crude reserves under Iranian soil, a quantity estimated as one of the largest in the world is not something the Western energy hunger industries can forget.
To energize its moribund economy, the Western nations needs an oil priced at between 30 to 50 dollars per barrel instead of the present more or less 100 dollars, and to reach this goal, it must find and pour as much as possible oil into the markets. This is exactly here that Iran's crude reserves finds its importance.
As it demonstrated four years ago when it announced Mr. Mahmoud Ahmadi Nezhad as the elected candidate while in reality it was Mr. Mir Hosseyn Moussavi, a former Prime minister who had largely won the elections, Sepah can easily "engineer" elections and bring out of the ballot boxes the candidate it favours.
To many Iranian political observers, it seems that Mr. Sa'id Jalili, the present Secretary of the regime's Supreme Council on National Security and the senior nuclear negotiator with the 5+1 is the Sepah's choice as the next President.
As such, the unsmiling, unfriendly Jalili who has lost a foot during the war with Iraq and could also be supported by Ali Khameneh'i for having worked in his private office before going to the SCNS, is expected, on orders from his masters in the Sepah, meet, after the elections and as Iran's new President, Mrs. Catherine Ashton, the European Community's senior Foreign Affairs Minister and the leader of the 5+1 Iran's readiness to accept the group's demands in exchange of removal of sanctions and renewal of economic relations, including investments in Iran's oil industries.
With the exception of a small number of people, most of the analysts I talked to, experts who are staunchly against the regime and work hard to change it into a secular democracy, genuinely, but sadly, hope that Sepah could reach a satisfactory agreement with the international community and by doing so, remove the danger of an attack that not only would completely ruin Iran and kill million of people, but in its aftermath, divide the country into 4 or 5 mini, vassal States. ENDS
Safa Haeri
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