Will Khameneh'i Help Rohani Saving the System?

 

          According to some pro reform Iranian political analysts, the new crippling American sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran that took effect on first of July 2013 would badly harm the new President elect Hassan Rohani’s promises of direct talks with Washington.

          This is not correct, for the simple reason that these measures decided by the Congress targeting all kind of exports except foodstuff and medicines, including pieces for the giant Iranian auto making and assembling industries in the one hand and stop all exports of Iranian oil and gas on the other had been signed by President Barak Obama six month ago, at a time that the race for presidential election had not started.

          During his electoral campaign and after his election, Mr. Rohani has promised to do his best to put an end to the decades-long antagonism with the United States by offering face to face negotiations with the Obama Administration, based on mutual respect and equality. He had also promised the group of five plus one (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany) maximum of clarity and transparence in Iranian nuclear program.

          It is true that the challenges Sheykh Hassan Rohani face are so numerous, so deep, so various and multi-faces that solving even a tiny part of them looks a Herculean task, in case his road is not hampered by the vicious Ali Khameneh’i, the ego-centric leader of the ruling theocracy in the one hand and the all powerful Sepah, or the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution that like an octopus, has monopolized the regime’s politics and economy.

          As a sample example of the problems Mr. Rohani would face, the president of the Union of Iranian auto-makers had said recently that the halt in import of essential pieces and parts for auto making factories would mean the closure of these industries and the layoff of almost a million workers, something that would lead to social uprising.

         

Yielding to American pressures, two Chinese big shipping lines announced 2 days ago that they would stop transporting goods for Iran. 

          The fact that few days after the victory of the 65 years-old Dr. Rohani, one of the six candidates approved by the leader-controlled Guardian Council of Constitution, both Khameneh’i and the Sepah warmly congratulated him and promised collaboration, prompted some optimists to think that Khameneh’i, having finally realized that economic sanctions have paved the ground for a national hunger rebellion by the people, is ready to drink his cup of poison.

          In a meeting with members of the Judiciary, Khameneh’i said if the Americans and the Europeans stop being stubborn, if they are sincere, the solution of the nuclear problems is very easy and possible, but the Americans do not want this problem be solved. “Even the International Atomic Energy Agency had confirmed the legality of our nuclear programs”, he said, adding a lie to others, for the IAEA still doubts the real objectives of these projects and urges Iran to allow its experts and inspectors to sites like Parchin or Fordo, a demand Tehran refuses to accept.

          At the same time, Mr. Ali Akbar Salehi had announced that Mr. Rohani has received in his hand “the entire nuclear files”, meaning he had got green light from Khameneh’i for dealing this thorny crisis.

At the same meeting, Khameneh’i advised the people not to expect much from the new President, to be patient, not to put much pressure on him, and at trhe same time, called on all public officials and administrations to help Mr. Rohani in his duties.

          But the dream did not last long: In one of his most recent articles, Hosseyn Shari’atmadari, a security officer specialist in the interrogation of political prisoners appointed by Khameneh’i as the Chief Editor of the hard line Keyhan newspaper, warned the President-elect to “take his distance from the leaders of the American-Israeli sedition of 88”, meaning former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and referring to the popular protests that followed the massive fraud in presidential elections of 2009, proclaiming Mahmoud Ahmadi Nezhad as the winner instead of Mr. Mir Hosseyne Moussavi, a former Prime minister who had won the race by 25 million against 16 million to the candidate of Khameneh’i.

          It is an open secret that Shari’atmadari’s editorial reflects the views of his boss, Ali Khameneh’i, to whom he is one of the numerous advisors. The article was in answer to Mr. Rohani who, at the one hand, during public post electoral meetings, had presented his thanks and paid tributes to Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani, both his most influential supporters during the presidential campaign and, on the other, had pledged to form an “all parties, all tendencies government”, meaning it may include some reformers.

          In another article that concerns Mr. Rohani’s promised efforts to sit with the Americans and solve pending problems, Keyhan reminded him not to thrust the Yankees: “Both Hashemi Rafsanjani and Khatami tried to befriend with the Americans and both had their hands burned, for the simple reason that the Americans are always cheating other people”.

          These articles as well as the harsh words contained in recent speeches by General Hassan Firouzabadi, the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of all the regime’s armed forces warning Mr. Rohani against getting close to reformers or normalize with Saudi Arabi, are proves that Khameneh’i nor the Sepah are not yet ready to change course, to give the new President more freedom of action than had previous presidents, that the leaders does not want to drink the cup of poison, that while the whole world is taking very seriously the American and European sanctions, Khameneh’i considers them as a joke.

          If this assessment is correct, the Islamic Republic would have to choose between to nightmares: A terrible and bloody attack by the United States, Israel, Britain and eventually some other European nations, a blank bombing of the country that would destroy all industrial infrastructures, military bases and nuclear sites, leaving hundreds of thousands dead and wounded, or a national uprising that would boot the mollahs out. 

 

          But in the absence of any known political force inside the country capable of taking over, only the Sepah seems able to replace the theocracy by a military dictatorship which can at the same time respond positively to the American-European demands concerning Iran’s nuclear projects. ENDS

Safa Haeri

According to some pro reform Iranian political analysts, the new crippling American sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran that took effect on first of July 2013 would badly harm the new President elect Hassan Rohani’s promises of direct talks with Washington.

This is not correct, for the simple reason that these measures decided by the Congress targeting all kind of exports except foodstuff and medicines, including pieces for the giant Iranian auto making and assembling industries in the one hand and stop all exports of Iranian oil and gas on the other had been signed by President Barak Obama six month ago, at a time that the race for presidential election had not started.

During his electoral campaign and after his election, Mr. Rohani has promised to do his best to put an end to the decades-long antagonism with the United States by offering face to face negotiations with the Obama Administration, based on mutual respect and equality. He had also promised the group of five plus one (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany) maximum of clarity and transparence in Iranian nuclear program.

It is true that the challenges Sheykh Hassan Rohani face are so numerous, so deep, so various and multi-faces that solving even a tiny part of them looks a Herculean task, in case his road is not hampered by the vicious Ali Khameneh’i, the ego-centric leader of the ruling theocracy in the one hand and the all powerful Sepah, or the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution that like an octopus, has monopolized the regime’s politics and economy.

As a sample example of the problems Mr. Rohani would face, the president of the Union of Iranian auto-makers had said recently that the halt in import of essential pieces and parts for auto making factories would mean the closure of these industries and the layoff of almost a million workers, something that would lead to social uprising.

Yielding to American pressures, two Chinese big shipping lines announced 2 days ago that they would stop transporting goods for Iran.

The fact that few days after the victory of the 65 years-old Dr. Rohani, one of the six candidates approved by the leader-controlled Guardian Council of Constitution, both Khameneh’i and the Sepah warmly congratulated him and promised collaboration, prompted some optimists to think that Khameneh’i, having finally realized that economic sanctions have paved the ground for a national hunger rebellion by the people, is ready to drink his cup of poison.

In a meeting with members of the Judiciary, Khameneh’i said if the Americans and the Europeans stop being stubborn, if they are sincere, the solution of the nuclear problems is very easy and possible, but the Americans do not want this problem be solved. “Even the International Atomic Energy Agency had confirmed the legality of our nuclear programs”, he said, adding a lie to others, for the IAEA still doubts the real objectives of these projects and urges Iran to allow its experts and inspectors to sites like Parchin or Fordo, a demand Tehran refuses to accept.

At the same time, Mr. Ali Akbar Salehi had announced that Mr. Rohani has received in his hand “the entire nuclear files”, meaning he had got green light from Khameneh’i for dealing this thorny crisis.

At the same meeting, Khameneh’i advised the people not to expect much from the new President, to be patient, not to put much pressure on him, and at trhe same time, called on all public officials and administrations to help Mr. Rohani in his duties.

But the dream did not last long: In one of his most recent articles, Hosseyn Shari’atmadari, a security officer specialist in the interrogation of political prisoners appointed by Khameneh’i as the Chief Editor of the hard line Keyhan newspaper, warned the President-elect to “take his distance from the leaders of the American-Israeli sedition of 88”, meaning former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and referring to the popular protests that followed the massive fraud in presidential elections of 2009, proclaiming Mahmoud Ahmadi Nezhad as the winner instead of Mr. Mir Hosseyne Moussavi, a former Prime minister who had won the race by 25 million against 16 million to the candidate of Khameneh’i.

It is an open secret that Shari’atmadari’s editorial reflects the views of his boss, Ali Khameneh’i, to whom he is one of the numerous advisors. The article was in answer to Mr. Rohani who, at the one hand, during public post electoral meetings, had presented his thanks and paid tributes to Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani, both his most influential supporters during the presidential campaign and, on the other, had pledged to form an “all parties, all tendencies government”, meaning it may include some reformers.

In another article that concerns Mr. Rohani’s promised efforts to sit with the Americans and solve pending problems, Keyhan reminded him not to thrust the Yankees: “Both Hashemi Rafsanjani and Khatami tried to befriend with the Americans and both had their hands burned, for the simple reason that the Americans are always cheating other people”.

These articles as well as the harsh words contained in recent speeches by General Hassan Firouzabadi, the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of all the regime’s armed forces warning Mr. Rohani against getting close to reformers or normalize with Saudi Arabi, are proves that Khameneh’i nor the Sepah are not yet ready to change course, to give the new President more freedom of action than had previous presidents, that the leaders does not want to drink the cup of poison, that while the whole world is taking very seriously the American and European sanctions, Khameneh’i considers them as a joke.

If this assessment is correct, the Islamic Republic would have to choose between to nightmares: A terrible and bloody attack by the United States, Israel, Britain and eventually some other European nations, a blank bombing of the country that would destroy all industrial infrastructures, military bases and nuclear sites, leaving hundreds of thousands dead and wounded, or a national uprising that would boot the mollahs out.

But in the absence of any known political force inside the country capable of taking over, only the Sepah seems able to replace the theocracy by a military dictatorship which can at the same time respond positively to the American-European demands concerning Iran’s nuclear projects. ENDS

Safa Haeri