Khamenehi put brakes on Rohani

With only few days befor the official change of president in the Islamic Republic of Iran, the regime’s vindictive, egocentric, psychopath “leader”, Ali Khameneh’i has placed the new Head of the Executive in front of a dramatic choice: to continue the main foreign policy and nuclear existing path or face same humiliations suffered by his predecessors.

In a meeting with the outgoing president and members of his cabinet, Khameneh’i once again showed his real satanic nature when he warmly praised the actions of Mahmoud Ahmadi Nezhad’s eight years presidency, closing his eyes over the fact that the maverick, populist, master liar president was the one who had the audacity of putting an end to the image of Khameneh’i as a semi divinity, making him the leader of a hated minority party instead of the “father” of all Iranians and the “Guide” of the nation.

 

He also closed his eyes over the fact that despite a huge income of more than 700 billion dollars from oil in eight years, he is leaving to Mr. Hassan Rohani a nation that is placed among the poorest countries of the world, with a hyper inflation, hyper unemployment and hyper misery.

As almost the same time Khameneh’i was expressing his satisfaction with Ahmadi Nezhad’s achievements both at domestic and international levels, ignoring that the Islamic Republic is probably the most isolated nation in the world, paralyzed by crippling sanctions, in the Majles (Parliament), the president-elect was informing the parliamentarians that for the first time in the regime’s 35 years life, Iran has had a negative growth for 2 successive years, that inflation was standing at more than 45 per cent officially and unemployment was hitting 35 per cent of the population.

For his part, Mr. Akbar Torkan, an economist advisor of the “key holder Sheykh” (reference to Mr. Rohani’s campaign symbol) had said that “the economic and social situation we face is much worth than what we had imagined”.

But the outgoing president denied these facts, told Khameneh’i that inflation is less than 30 percent, that unemployment is negligible, that in the eight years he was president, Iran has achieved more industrial progress than any other previous governments.

One day after this indirect “clash” between the diminished leader and the hopeful president elect, Khameneh’i, putting a brake on hopes raised by Rohani’s pledges that he would loosen the pressure of international sanctions by giving both the group of 5+1 and the IAEA satisfaction with shedding more lights on Iranian controversial nuclear activities, said “for the time being, there is no need to change the path followed by Ahmadi Nezhad and the same strategy which has taken us to the summits of progress and is in the line of the revolution must be continued”.

 

 For most independent political analysts, Khameneh’i insisting on the continuation of the present path, one that has ruined the country is a “very serious blow” to Rohani’s plans to normalize Iran’s relations with the international community, including the United States, by offering more transparency on the regime’s nuclear projects, one that the West suspects having a military side aimed at producing atomic weapons and Teheran insists it has only a civilian nature. ENDS

Safa Haeri

L'Impasse Egyptienne

          La mort de 52 membres de frères musulmans égyptiens, tues par l’armée dans des circonstances encore non précises, a porte un coup presque mortel au mouvement anti-Mosri et a divise la société égyptienne en deux pôles de plus en plus hostiles l’une envers l’autre, estiment certains analystes et commentateurs iraniens, observant que ni les promesses de l’état-majeur de déterminer les responsabilités de cette tuerie ni l’offre du président par intérim aux frères musulmans de participer a un gouvernement de coalition nationale n’ont donne de résultats.

         

 Pour ces observateurs, l’une des erreurs de M. Mosri était qu’au lieu de s’efforcer a sortir le pays de marasme économique, de relancer le tourisme, cette principale source de revenues du pays qui a presque séchée depuis les bouleversements des deux dernières années, d’écouter les voix des forces séculaires exigeant une société civile démocratique, il a commence par islamiser le pays, estimant que étant musulmans en majorité, les égyptiens accepteraient l’application des lois de la charia, c'est-à-dire les dogmes de l’Islam, alors que 49% des électeurs avaient vote contre lui et qui, un an après, en nombre plus important, réclamaient sa démission.

          Pourtant la décision de l’armée égyptienne de destituer M. Mohammad el Morsi, figure modérée du mouvement islamiste Frères Musulmans élu démocratiquement avait été chaleureusement accueilli par des millions d’égyptiens de toutes tendances politiques et idéologiques réunies sur la Place Tahrir (Liberté), allant des forces laïques aux séculaires, des libéraux aux croyants non dogmatiques, aux artistes et journalistes, avocats et juristes, etc.… qui réclamaient le départ de M. Mosri.

          Mais cette tuerie, que l’armée a impute aux « terroristes qui cherchaient a s’emparer de la caserne de la Garde Républicaine », a permis aux Frères Musulmans de reprendre l’initiative, resserrer ses rangs et renforcer sa position d’une part et de l’autre, placer les forces séculaires dans une situation délicate.

  
          « Ces jeunes, ces femmes, ces intellectuels, ces libéraux, sont assoiffes de libertés et de démocratie et ne fait de doute que ces forces se retourneraient contre si l’armée si elle refusait a les satisfaire », affirme le Dr. Sa’id Peyvandi, sociologue enseignant dans une université parisienne.

         Par contre, de l’avis de certains ayatollahs radicaux iraniens hostiles au Président déchu pour ne pas avoir rompu les relations diplomatiques avec l’Etat hébreux, la raison de la défaite de Mosri est qu’il n’a pas suivis les leçons de la révolution islamique de l’Iran, c'est-à-dire ériger des tribunaux révolutionnaires, exécuter immédiatement toutes les principales personnalités civiles et militaire du régime abattu, créer des comites de vigilance etc..

          Sortir l’Egypte de l’impasse dans laquelle elle se trouve nécessite beaucoup de bonne volonté et de sagesse de la part de toutes les forces de la nation, des Frères Musulmans, une minorité bien organisée et profondément enracinée dans les couches rurales et présente même parmi une certaine élite éduquée qu’on ne peut ignorer et qui insiste sur le retour de M. Mosri au pouvoir comme une condition sine quoi none, aux partis séculaires et démocrates qui ne veulent pas d’un régime dirige par des islamistes. FIN

Will Khameneh'i Help Rohani Saving the System?

 

          According to some pro reform Iranian political analysts, the new crippling American sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran that took effect on first of July 2013 would badly harm the new President elect Hassan Rohani’s promises of direct talks with Washington.

          This is not correct, for the simple reason that these measures decided by the Congress targeting all kind of exports except foodstuff and medicines, including pieces for the giant Iranian auto making and assembling industries in the one hand and stop all exports of Iranian oil and gas on the other had been signed by President Barak Obama six month ago, at a time that the race for presidential election had not started.

          During his electoral campaign and after his election, Mr. Rohani has promised to do his best to put an end to the decades-long antagonism with the United States by offering face to face negotiations with the Obama Administration, based on mutual respect and equality. He had also promised the group of five plus one (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany) maximum of clarity and transparence in Iranian nuclear program.

          It is true that the challenges Sheykh Hassan Rohani face are so numerous, so deep, so various and multi-faces that solving even a tiny part of them looks a Herculean task, in case his road is not hampered by the vicious Ali Khameneh’i, the ego-centric leader of the ruling theocracy in the one hand and the all powerful Sepah, or the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution that like an octopus, has monopolized the regime’s politics and economy.

          As a sample example of the problems Mr. Rohani would face, the president of the Union of Iranian auto-makers had said recently that the halt in import of essential pieces and parts for auto making factories would mean the closure of these industries and the layoff of almost a million workers, something that would lead to social uprising.

         

Yielding to American pressures, two Chinese big shipping lines announced 2 days ago that they would stop transporting goods for Iran. 

          The fact that few days after the victory of the 65 years-old Dr. Rohani, one of the six candidates approved by the leader-controlled Guardian Council of Constitution, both Khameneh’i and the Sepah warmly congratulated him and promised collaboration, prompted some optimists to think that Khameneh’i, having finally realized that economic sanctions have paved the ground for a national hunger rebellion by the people, is ready to drink his cup of poison.

          In a meeting with members of the Judiciary, Khameneh’i said if the Americans and the Europeans stop being stubborn, if they are sincere, the solution of the nuclear problems is very easy and possible, but the Americans do not want this problem be solved. “Even the International Atomic Energy Agency had confirmed the legality of our nuclear programs”, he said, adding a lie to others, for the IAEA still doubts the real objectives of these projects and urges Iran to allow its experts and inspectors to sites like Parchin or Fordo, a demand Tehran refuses to accept.

          At the same time, Mr. Ali Akbar Salehi had announced that Mr. Rohani has received in his hand “the entire nuclear files”, meaning he had got green light from Khameneh’i for dealing this thorny crisis.

At the same meeting, Khameneh’i advised the people not to expect much from the new President, to be patient, not to put much pressure on him, and at trhe same time, called on all public officials and administrations to help Mr. Rohani in his duties.

          But the dream did not last long: In one of his most recent articles, Hosseyn Shari’atmadari, a security officer specialist in the interrogation of political prisoners appointed by Khameneh’i as the Chief Editor of the hard line Keyhan newspaper, warned the President-elect to “take his distance from the leaders of the American-Israeli sedition of 88”, meaning former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and referring to the popular protests that followed the massive fraud in presidential elections of 2009, proclaiming Mahmoud Ahmadi Nezhad as the winner instead of Mr. Mir Hosseyne Moussavi, a former Prime minister who had won the race by 25 million against 16 million to the candidate of Khameneh’i.

          It is an open secret that Shari’atmadari’s editorial reflects the views of his boss, Ali Khameneh’i, to whom he is one of the numerous advisors. The article was in answer to Mr. Rohani who, at the one hand, during public post electoral meetings, had presented his thanks and paid tributes to Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani, both his most influential supporters during the presidential campaign and, on the other, had pledged to form an “all parties, all tendencies government”, meaning it may include some reformers.

          In another article that concerns Mr. Rohani’s promised efforts to sit with the Americans and solve pending problems, Keyhan reminded him not to thrust the Yankees: “Both Hashemi Rafsanjani and Khatami tried to befriend with the Americans and both had their hands burned, for the simple reason that the Americans are always cheating other people”.

          These articles as well as the harsh words contained in recent speeches by General Hassan Firouzabadi, the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of all the regime’s armed forces warning Mr. Rohani against getting close to reformers or normalize with Saudi Arabi, are proves that Khameneh’i nor the Sepah are not yet ready to change course, to give the new President more freedom of action than had previous presidents, that the leaders does not want to drink the cup of poison, that while the whole world is taking very seriously the American and European sanctions, Khameneh’i considers them as a joke.

          If this assessment is correct, the Islamic Republic would have to choose between to nightmares: A terrible and bloody attack by the United States, Israel, Britain and eventually some other European nations, a blank bombing of the country that would destroy all industrial infrastructures, military bases and nuclear sites, leaving hundreds of thousands dead and wounded, or a national uprising that would boot the mollahs out. 

 

          But in the absence of any known political force inside the country capable of taking over, only the Sepah seems able to replace the theocracy by a military dictatorship which can at the same time respond positively to the American-European demands concerning Iran’s nuclear projects. ENDS

Safa Haeri

According to some pro reform Iranian political analysts, the new crippling American sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran that took effect on first of July 2013 would badly harm the new President elect Hassan Rohani’s promises of direct talks with Washington.

This is not correct, for the simple reason that these measures decided by the Congress targeting all kind of exports except foodstuff and medicines, including pieces for the giant Iranian auto making and assembling industries in the one hand and stop all exports of Iranian oil and gas on the other had been signed by President Barak Obama six month ago, at a time that the race for presidential election had not started.

During his electoral campaign and after his election, Mr. Rohani has promised to do his best to put an end to the decades-long antagonism with the United States by offering face to face negotiations with the Obama Administration, based on mutual respect and equality. He had also promised the group of five plus one (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany) maximum of clarity and transparence in Iranian nuclear program.

It is true that the challenges Sheykh Hassan Rohani face are so numerous, so deep, so various and multi-faces that solving even a tiny part of them looks a Herculean task, in case his road is not hampered by the vicious Ali Khameneh’i, the ego-centric leader of the ruling theocracy in the one hand and the all powerful Sepah, or the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution that like an octopus, has monopolized the regime’s politics and economy.

As a sample example of the problems Mr. Rohani would face, the president of the Union of Iranian auto-makers had said recently that the halt in import of essential pieces and parts for auto making factories would mean the closure of these industries and the layoff of almost a million workers, something that would lead to social uprising.

Yielding to American pressures, two Chinese big shipping lines announced 2 days ago that they would stop transporting goods for Iran.

The fact that few days after the victory of the 65 years-old Dr. Rohani, one of the six candidates approved by the leader-controlled Guardian Council of Constitution, both Khameneh’i and the Sepah warmly congratulated him and promised collaboration, prompted some optimists to think that Khameneh’i, having finally realized that economic sanctions have paved the ground for a national hunger rebellion by the people, is ready to drink his cup of poison.

In a meeting with members of the Judiciary, Khameneh’i said if the Americans and the Europeans stop being stubborn, if they are sincere, the solution of the nuclear problems is very easy and possible, but the Americans do not want this problem be solved. “Even the International Atomic Energy Agency had confirmed the legality of our nuclear programs”, he said, adding a lie to others, for the IAEA still doubts the real objectives of these projects and urges Iran to allow its experts and inspectors to sites like Parchin or Fordo, a demand Tehran refuses to accept.

At the same time, Mr. Ali Akbar Salehi had announced that Mr. Rohani has received in his hand “the entire nuclear files”, meaning he had got green light from Khameneh’i for dealing this thorny crisis.

At the same meeting, Khameneh’i advised the people not to expect much from the new President, to be patient, not to put much pressure on him, and at trhe same time, called on all public officials and administrations to help Mr. Rohani in his duties.

But the dream did not last long: In one of his most recent articles, Hosseyn Shari’atmadari, a security officer specialist in the interrogation of political prisoners appointed by Khameneh’i as the Chief Editor of the hard line Keyhan newspaper, warned the President-elect to “take his distance from the leaders of the American-Israeli sedition of 88”, meaning former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and referring to the popular protests that followed the massive fraud in presidential elections of 2009, proclaiming Mahmoud Ahmadi Nezhad as the winner instead of Mr. Mir Hosseyne Moussavi, a former Prime minister who had won the race by 25 million against 16 million to the candidate of Khameneh’i.

It is an open secret that Shari’atmadari’s editorial reflects the views of his boss, Ali Khameneh’i, to whom he is one of the numerous advisors. The article was in answer to Mr. Rohani who, at the one hand, during public post electoral meetings, had presented his thanks and paid tributes to Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani, both his most influential supporters during the presidential campaign and, on the other, had pledged to form an “all parties, all tendencies government”, meaning it may include some reformers.

In another article that concerns Mr. Rohani’s promised efforts to sit with the Americans and solve pending problems, Keyhan reminded him not to thrust the Yankees: “Both Hashemi Rafsanjani and Khatami tried to befriend with the Americans and both had their hands burned, for the simple reason that the Americans are always cheating other people”.

These articles as well as the harsh words contained in recent speeches by General Hassan Firouzabadi, the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of all the regime’s armed forces warning Mr. Rohani against getting close to reformers or normalize with Saudi Arabi, are proves that Khameneh’i nor the Sepah are not yet ready to change course, to give the new President more freedom of action than had previous presidents, that the leaders does not want to drink the cup of poison, that while the whole world is taking very seriously the American and European sanctions, Khameneh’i considers them as a joke.

If this assessment is correct, the Islamic Republic would have to choose between to nightmares: A terrible and bloody attack by the United States, Israel, Britain and eventually some other European nations, a blank bombing of the country that would destroy all industrial infrastructures, military bases and nuclear sites, leaving hundreds of thousands dead and wounded, or a national uprising that would boot the mollahs out.

But in the absence of any known political force inside the country capable of taking over, only the Sepah seems able to replace the theocracy by a military dictatorship which can at the same time respond positively to the American-European demands concerning Iran’s nuclear projects. ENDS

Safa Haeri