Rohani’s Enormous Challenges

 

         Whether the election of Dr. Hassan Rohani was an “engineering” performed by both the Sepah, or the Army of Guardians of the Islamic Revolution and Ali Khameneh’i, the leader of the Iranian theocratic dictatorship or not, there is no doubt that compared the five other running candidates, specially to M. Sa’id Jalili, the present Secretary of Supreme Council on National Security (SCNS) and the regime’s Chief nuclear negotiator with the group of 5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nation’s Security Council and Germany), he was the most handsome, politically experimented, intellectual, and though he is the leader’s personnal representative at the SCNS, he is the most independent from Mr. Khamenehe’i.

          “The small percentage of Mr. Sa’id Jalili votes (he received around 11% of votes against more than 50% for Mr. Rohani) is in fact a vote of opposition to both Khameneh’i, whom Jalili, in his electoral conferences, was repeating exactly the speeches, and to the Sepah, which had presented Jalili as it’s favored candidate”, observed Dr. Majid Mohammadi, a respected expert on the Islamic Republic’s politics and politicians.

          For other observers, by “pushing Rohani, by engineering his election instead of Jalili, or for any other reasons, Khameneh’i has shot a bullet in his own foot. It also proved that the principalists are no more united”.

Both domestic and international challenges Mr. Rohani faces and electoral promises he made are “enormous” and almost all Iranian analysts and observers agrees that he could not overcome them unless he get a “blank cheque” from the much stubborn, egocentric, complexes and spiteful Khameneh’i who suffers more and more from his growing lack of legitimacy, power and leadership in the one hand and on the other, a real pledge by the all powerful Sepah, which controls most of the political sphere and more than eighty percent of the nation’s economy, not to put any “stick in his wheels”, something many commentators seriously doubt.

          “Most of Iran’s economy is not controlled by the government. They are at the hands of the leader, his entourage, influential subordinates and the Sepah, all exempted from any control and any taxes”, underlined Dr. Reza Qoreyshi, a professor of Economy teaching in America.

          Rohani’s influential supporters like former presidents Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsamjani and Mohammad Khatami have urged the millions who voted for him not to “rush demanding immediate implementation of his promises and not expect miracles from him. Mr. Ataolah Mahajerani, Mr. Khatami’s minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance who lives in London told the BBC’s Persian service that the house imprisonment of Mr. Mir Hosseyn Moussavi and Mr. Mehdi Karroubi, respectively former prime minister and president of the Majles, or the Islamic parliament, “was not Ahmadi Nezhad’s decision”. In fact, their accusation of “sedition” and consequent house arrest was on personal order from Khameneh’i.

         In his first press conference, Mr. Rohani said that as a President-elect he has no executive powers, but repeated that he would stand by his electoral promises, starting by taking the road of understanding and friendship with the international community and showing transparency concerning the regime’s nuclear intentions in order to reduce international sanctions, the root of all the people’s sufferings.

          According to some Iranians, pro Islamic Republic’s lobby organizations in Washington, like the National Iranian American Council or American Iranian Relations Committee can, if they are sincere that they work for reconciling Iran and the United States and ameliorate relations between them, with their contacts with some members of the American Congress or the Senate, try to convince the Obama Administration to give Rohani time to prove his sincerity when he says he want good relations with the West, which means also and above all the United States of America and not to repeat George Bush’s mistake with former president Mohammd Khatami who, while he did his best to help America in Afghanistan, nicknamed Iran as “evil State” alongside with Iraq and North Korea 

          “Mr. Rohani might realizes parts of his promises on condition of choosing as ministers and advisors experienced politicians and particularly real economic experts, but above all and the most important, he must restore confidence with both the Iranian people inside and the world outside”, Dr. Fereydoun Khavand, a professor of economy at a Paris university told the independent and popular Andisheh TV based in Los Angeles, adding that Iranians are “staunchly against any war and any outside intervention”.

 

          For his part, Dr. Bizhan Eftekhari, an economist and presenter of the program “Economy under Magnifying glass” on the Los Angeles-based opposition Andisheh TV says “to fight inflation that stands at more than 80%, the staggering and growing unemployment, the reduction of some of the international sanctions against the Islamic Republic is an absolute condition. This will not happen unless Tehran decides to halt all its nuclear activities, including enrichment of uranium, something Mr. Rohani, in his press conference, ruled out, saying these projects are legal under all international laws. “This is a vicious circle. Continuation of atomic program means continuation of sanctions, means even le
sser revenues from oil exports, meaning more suffering for the people and at last, the start of hunger rebellion, which is the regime’s worst nightmare”.

Safa Haeri

M. Hassan Rohani est la derniere chance de la Republique Islamique

 

          La surprenante victoire de Hodjatoleslam Hassan Rohani, 67 ans, des le premier tour de vote des élections présidentielles iraniennes tenues le 14 juin 2013 a été estime par de nombreux analystes et observateurs iraniens comme une nouvelle gifle a Ali Khameneh’i, le « Guide » de la République islamique comme a sa politique agressive a l’interieur et antagoniste avec la communauté internationale.

          En effet, des huis candidats qui avaient passe par le crible du Conseil de Gardien de la Constitution, organe contrôle par le « Guide » et charge de refuser ou accepter la compétence de tous les candidats a toutes les élections en Iran, Mr. Rohani était le plus eloigne de « beyt »,ou l’office de Khameneh’i, et cela malgré le fait qu’il est le représentant personnel du « Guide » au Conseil Suprême de la Sécurité Nationale.

          Au trois dernières élections présidentielles, les électeurs iraniens avaient vote massivement pour le candidat qui n’était pas soutenu par M. Khameneh’i, comme la victoire écrasante de hodjatoleslam Mohammad Khatami en aout1997 face a hodjatoleslam Nateq Nouri, président du madjles (le parlement islamique) et soutenu par le Leader, en 2009 quand ils ont élu Mr. Mir Hosseyne Moussavi, le candidat des réformateurs, avec 25 millions de votes contre M. Mahmoud Ahmadi Nejad, le favori de M. Khameneh’i, qui n’avait reçu que 16 millions, mais face a cette défaite, sur l’ordre de ce dernier, les voix avaient été simplement renversées pendant la nuit pour permettre a M. Khamenehe’i de proclamer son favori comme président.

          Par ailleurs, la non intervention de Sepah dans cette élection montre que contrairement a l’opinion de beaucoup d’observateurs et commentateurs affirmant que le Sepah a la haute main dans les affaires du régime et que le « Guide » était « prisonnier » de l’Armée des Gardiens de la Révolution, M. Khameneh’i conserve toujours son contrôle de cette armée puissante et omniprésente.

          En effet, M. Khameneh’i, lors de sa dernière déclaration publique avait dit qu’il ne favorisait aucun des candidats présents et dans un effort d’encourager les électeurs a se présenter aux urnes, il avait demande aux iraniens, « même ceux qui ne sont pas avec la République islamique, de voter pour le pays (l’Iran) ». Declaration qui était interprete par les observateurs comme indiquant son aveu de l’impopularité grandissante de la théocratie régnante et la perte de sa legitimite.

          « Khameneh’i avait enfin compris que le temps de boire la tasse de poison est arrive, donc il a cherche quelqu’un qui puisse rendre ce poison buvable et cette personne, vue son passe, sa situation et sa position vis-à-vis de l’occident, ne pouvait être que Hassan Rohani », a observe un observateur averti.

          Le poids du fardeau sur le dos du nouveau Président iraniens, qui doit prendre le pouvoir officiellement le 14 aout prochain, est très lourd et complique, a commencer par essayer de faire suspendre les myriades de sanctions qui ont presque ruine l’économie du pays et accroitre la misère des classes moyennes et pauvres en apportant une repose satisfaisante aux demandes de 5+1 (les 5 membres permanents du Conseil de Sécurité des Nations Unies plus l’Allemagne) concernant le programme nucléaire de l’Iran, projet que l’occident suspecte d’avoir des fin militaires et dont Téhéran dément avec véhémence, sans avoir pu convaincre l’occident de sa bonne foie, restituer la place honorable de l’Iran dans le concert international, réconcilier avec le monde etc…

          Dans le domaine intérieur, lutter contre la corruption généralisée, surtout parmi la classe dirigeante, les religieux les personnalités les plus influents proches de Khameneh’i et de sa famille et surtout les officiers supérieurs de Sepah, l’inflation vertigineuse et le chômage, surtout parmi les jeunes travailleurs, l’insécurité, les discriminations etc… tous les points figurants dans ses promesses électorales.

          Pour M. Mohammad Amini, historien respecte, cette élection marque un pas de plus vers la transition de ce regime vers un système séculaire et démocratique et conseille aux « millions qui ont vote pour M. Rohani, forts de leurs votes, le forcer a tenir ses promesses électorales ». 

          Lors des trois débats télévises et ses interventions publiques, M. Rohani avait affirme que les prisonniers politiques, y compris M. Moussavi, sa femme, Mme Zahra Rahnavard et M. Mehdi Karroubi doivent être libères, les groupes de pression et de répression en habits civils doivent disparaitre, les droits des minorités religieuses et ethniques reconnues, la liberté de presse et partis politiques rétablie, l’état de droit doit remplace celui de militarisation, les droits légitimes de la femme respectes, la situation économique dévastée par Ahmadi Nejad améliorée etc. "Je suis un juriste, et non un colonel. Je ne permettrais pas que ddes etudiants soient expulses de l'universite pour avoir exprime son opinion, que nos filles soient agressees dans les rues etc…

          Bien des commentateurs et analystes doutent que M. Rohani puisse realiser toutes ses promesses.          « La situation de M. Khameneh’i est semblable a celle de son prédécesseur, l’ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini avec la résolution 598 de Conseil de Sécurité des Nations Unies que l’Imam avait refuse lorsque l’Iran avait occupe une partie du territoire irakien, possédait l’ile stratégique de Fao, était en position de force et que certains Etats arabes, comme l’Arabie saoudite, avaient promis de verser a l’Iran plus de 50 milliards de dollars, mais dut l’accepter quand l’Iran était a l’abois, l’armée n’avait plus de moyens de défense et que l’Irak avait repris l’offensive. Aujourd’hui, M. Khameneh’i n’a d’autres choix que de suivre la voie de M. Khomeini en buvant la tasse de poison », a commente M. Hosseyne Bastani, un des commentateurs de service Persan de la BBC.

          Pour le Dr. Mohsen Milani, professeur a l’Université de Tampa, Etats Unis, « L’Iran n’a d’autres choix que de changer sa politique étrangère et de résoudre ses difficultés avec l’Amérique. Même si l’Iran parvient a une sorte d’entente avec le groupe de 5+1, ses problèmes continueront, car elles avaient commence avec la prise d’otage des diplomates américains a Téhéran, bien avant la crise atomique », a-t-il souligne.  

         Satisfait en général de la victoire de M. Rohani, dont des milliers d'iraniens ont fete dans les rues de la capitale comme les grandes villes, beaucoup d’iraniens, surtout les élites, les journalistes, les économistes, experts et artistes qui ont fui le pays pendant les huit années de gouvernement d’Ahmadi Nejad, espèrent que le nouveau Président annonce une réconciliation nationale afin qu’il puissent rentrer au pays et éventuellement, l’aider a la reconstruction de l’Iran.

Safa Haeri

Iranian Prersidential Elections: A Show of Ignorance

The last debate among the eight approved candidates for the upcoming presidential elections due on 14 June 2013 held last week was, according to almost all independent Iranian political analysts and observers was “the most pitiful, regrettable, tragic, comic and a farce were participants, symbolized by Mr. Haddad Adel, disputed their flatter the leader, their total obedience and subservience to him and wishes”.

      

  “Whoever is the next president, he should not have any worry when facing difficult situation, for, thanks God, we have our Leader, the most intelligent, wise, knowledgeable man in the world, who would help him”, said Mr. Haddad Adel, the father of the wife of Mr. Khameneh’i controversial son Mojtaba.

It was also an occasion for the participants to attack and denounce each other, even between Dr. Ali Akbar Velayati, Qolamali Haddad Adel, both senior advisors to Ali Khameneh’i, the leader of the Islamic republic, and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the present Mayor of the Capital Tehran, whom their “2+1 Coalition” became a “2+1 confrontation”.

        It was at the same time an occasion to judge the level and degree of the education, general knowledge about the world, economy and international relations of those who pretends to govern the nation.

        “It was a race between eight sick, limping, invalid, mentally retarded people whose level of general education was much less that elementary school students. Velayati, for instance, could not even read properly what he was reading”, said Dr. Kazem Alamdari, a respected researcher, historian and writer.        

The strongest confrontation was between Mr. Sa’id Jalili, the present secretary of the Supreme Council on National Security and Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator with the 5+1 and Dr. Velayati, a former Foreign Affairs minister under the presidency of Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, in the one hand, and Mr. Hassan Rphani with General Qalibaf on the other.

        When Mr. Jalili reiterated that his policy is “no to reconciliation and yes to de-sanctionazition”, Dr. Velayati jumped up and shouted that “this is exactly why we are so isolated, because you ignore elementary principles of diplomacy, which is an art of turning impossible to possible, enemies to friends. It is not with slogans and hard talks that one conducts the diplomacy of the Islamic Republic”.

        Jalili, visibly shocked, replied that in his talks with the 5+1, his position and logics were “so strong that at each meeting, they (5+1) back stepped from their position, softened their attitude and offering proposals that were not acceptable for us”.

        The example of proposals for save the Iranian collapsing economy can be the one given by Mr. Rohani, the only religious figure among the candidates, who suggested using tourism for creating jobs and bringing money to the empty box of the State. His devise is simple: “If we can attract 10 million tourists, this will bring us more than 10 billion dollars and create 4 million jobs”, he said.

         “Bring tourists for forcing women to wear chador, to be insulted by the basijis, young boys to be beaten up by the pasdars. To be spied and eventually arrested for not un-Islamic behavior? Do we have any infrastructures for tourists, like cheap, clean hotels with swimming pool and bar and discotheques? Free internet services?”, asked one Europe-based watcher of the debate.

        It is interesting that in their interventions, not only they totally ignored the appalling situation of human rights, the absence of free press and political parties, the discrimination against women and all other religions except the ruling Shi’ism, the hundreds of political prisoners, among them former officials, ministers, experts of this regime and many journalists buy they, including Mr. Rohani and Mr. Aref, two so-called reformist candidates, kept silence on the fate of Sheikh Mehdi Karroubi, a former Majles Speaker under the presidency of reformist president Mohammad Khatami and Mr. Mir Hosseyne Moussavi, a former Prime Minister under the presidency of …. Ali Khameneh’i who was the winner of last presidential elections but on order of Mr. Khameneh’i, Ahmadi Nezhad was proclaimed winner, both of them under house arrest with their wives, since more than three years.

Safa Haeri

PS: Latest information

 

PS: Latest information

1)   Mr. Haddad Adel announced on Monday 10 June 2013 his decision to give up, but although he did not said in favor of which one of the remaining candidates, many observers think he would help Mr. Jalili, the favorite candidate of Mr. Khameneh’i.

2)   The spokesman of the Guardian Council of the Constitution denied news carried by the Fars news agency, which is controlled by the Revolutionary Guards that the Council had removed Mr. Hassan Rohani from the list of presidential candidates because of revealing some regime’s secret information.

At the same time, it was reported that unidentified men attacked Saturday the electoral HQ of Mr. Rohani and beat and wounded some of the young people attending the candidate’s speech..

3)   A reformist meeting headed by Mr. Mohammad Khatami had decided to ask Mr. Mohammad Reza Aref to step aside in favor of Mr. Rohani, although an opinion poll carried by a news agency say the majority of people questioned said they would vote for Mr. Aref, who, so far, has not confirmed this information.

4)  Other polls carried by independent polling bureaux give Mr. Qalibaf as front runner, followed by Mr. Reza'i and Mr. Jalili. Still, other polls shows at least half the people questioned said they would not vote.